People often have issue with my “generalisations”.
Instead of trying to reason and explain why “all generalisations are generally true”. I decided to do a post on it, largely because there are no interjections here and I can explain myself fully. My generalisations are based on my observations of trends and analysis on various areas. I see the patterns and therefore come to my conclusions.
To start, I believe that we are all unique and that every single person brings something to the table, but that is on a small scale.
When we as humans act as a group, over time you will see patterns and repetitive behaviour even if what we are involved with, is not a good thing. As a group we almost never act originally. This frustrates those that think like individuals. Right?
People who think for themselves and are creative are the exceptions to the rule rather than the rule itself. Don’t believe me?
Let me show you………
That is the Dollar Index from 2002 to 2004. No contest, the trend is down. Its known in currency markets that one must follow the smart money. They normally in at the top (right at the top of the chart) they sell the market and ride the trend all the way down till 3 maybe even 5. But the slaughter of other traders along the way because they try and trade against the trend or getting in at the wrong times. So when the masses are starting to sell (by 4 on the chart) the smart money is starting to leave already)
The chart is marked with a 5 step (Elliot Wave pattern) down impulse. Now Elliot Wave analysis is based on crowd behaviour and here we see it clearly. Its not that us humans are not capable of doing things differently…..but when we act as a collective we tend to “follow the crowd”.
In short to explain the chart, if you sold the dollar (make money believing the market goes down) in this period you would be with the market and momentum would be on your side. If you were buying the dollar (hoping it would go up in value) then you would lose. You would be trading against the trend, basically a fools errand, unless you know what you are doing….
As for fighting a trend, to put it bluntly you cannot. Or more specifically, you cannot fight it and win. Even if you have a good idea and it works better than the current one, the masses simply will not change their direction.
Let’s look at something more close to us and something we are more involved with.
Most people have a love/hate relationship with facebook. And there have been a quite few nay sayers, but overall the masses have adopted facebook into their lives.
And there have been attempts at dethroning facebook from its position of social network of the world.
Even though whatever it is might have a better look, feature, interaction, etc. The masses are involve with what they think is correct for them. Truth and facts does not count for the masses. This does not mean they are correct.
It simply means that if you want to change things or the direction of things, the masses is not where you need to focus your efforts on.
If you want to change the world, you have got to think smaller. Instead of trying to fight the trend. Don’t bother with the masses, start creating a small group where people are really cared for and appreciated. That will become viral, should you desire it to do that.
I avoid large gatherings for this very reason. You will get lost in it all. Everyone desires to do great things….I desire to many little things. Even in relationships these things pan out like that. You can change the big picture by focusing on the little things.